All Publications

Women's involvement in local forest governance groups in Malawi

Author: Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s): Funny Muthema, Flossy Kambuku, Katrina Kosec, Jan Duchoslav

It is important to understand the extent to which improved participation of women in local resource governance institutions can improve or otherwise change the functioning of these groups and, ultimately, environmental and socioeconomic outcomes. To this end, we conducted an exploratory study in rural Malawi to identify potential units for a future experimental intervention focused on randomly encouraging the enforcement of gender quotas to increase women’s involvement in local-level forest management. This scoping report provides background information on the de facto and de jour ways in which women participate in and influence these institutions.

Gender, Deliberation, and Natural Resource Governance Experimental Evidence from Malawi

Author: Amanda Clayton

Co-Author(s): Boniface Dulani, Katrina Kosec, Amanda Lea Robinson

Initiatives to combat climate change often strive to include women’s voices, but there is limited evidence on how this feature influences program design or its benefits for women. We examine the causal effect of women’s representation in climate-related deliberations using the case of community-managed forests in rural Malawi. We run a lab-in-the-field experiment that randomly varies the gender composition of six-member groups asked to privately vote, deliberate, then privately vote again on their preferred policy to combat local over-harvesting. We find that any given woman has relatively more influence in group deliberations when women make up a larger share of the group. This result cannot be explained by changes in participants’ talk time. Rather, women’s presence changes the content of deliberations towards topics on which women tend to have greater expertise. Our work suggests that including women in decision-making can shift deliberative processes in ways that amplify women’s voices.  https://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/137083

Newsletter Vol. 1. Issue No 2 of 2023

Author: IPOR Communications Team

Co-Author(s):

This is a 2023 second quarter of IPOR Newsletter. 

Bridging the Gap between Citizen Expectations and Lawmakers’ Performance - Policy Brief

Author: The Governance and Local Development Institute (GLD)

Co-Author(s):

Citizens worldwide are dissatisfied with their law makers’ performance, often eroding trust in government institutions and fostering democratic backsliding. However, citizens often misunderstand parliamentarians’ roles and capacity, making demands that parliamentarians are neither tasked with nor capable of fulfilling.

Newsletter Vol. 1. Issue No 1 of 2023

Author: IPOR Communications Team

Co-Author(s):

This is a quarterly IPOR Newsletter. 

Elections in the time of covid-19: the triple crises around Malawi's 2020 presidential elections

Author: Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s): , Adam Harris, Ellen Lust, Karen Ferree, Kristen Kao, Cecilia Ahsan Jansson & Erica Ann Metheney

In June 2020, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, Malawians went to the polls and voted to replace the incumbent government. Much like other natural disasters, the Covid-19 pandemic and accompanying economic and political shocks had the potential to shake voters’ confidence in the government, reduce turnout, and/or reduce support for the incumbent if voters associated them with the ills of the pandemic. In this paper, we examine the extent to which the Coronavirus pandemic influenced Malawi’s 2020 elections. We consider how fear of infection and economic distress affected citizens’ trust and confidence in President Mutharika’s government, their willingness to turn out to vote, and their choices at the polls using data collected pre- and post-Covid. We find that fears about the virus and its economic impact did influence trust and confidence in the government to handle Covid but had little to no effect on either abstention or vote choice.

Zambia at a crossroads: Will citizens defend democracy?

Author: Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s): Michael Bratton and Sibusiso

If democracy is “rule by the people,” then “the people” play a decisive part in determining the health of this form of government. Especially when an incumbent president seeks to accumulate excessive powers, the question arises: Will people stand up to defend democracy? Today, Zambia has arrived at a crossroads. A convergence of troubling trends is evident: The quality of elections has deteriorated, the police and courts are losing independence, the space for political expression has shrunk, the leader of the political opposition languishes in jail, opposition legislators have been banished from Parliament, and an over-reaching president has imposed a state of emergency (Agence France-Presse, 2017). How do ordinary citizens react as such developments unfold? Do they consider that their country is backsliding from a functioning electoral democracy to a dominant-party autocracy? Are they predisposed to act as everyday guardians of democracy in the face of power plays by the executive? This report addresses these questions by means of a nationally representative Afrobarometer survey of public opinion conducted in Zambia in April 2017. The survey results show that, while Zambians remain firmly committed to democratic ideals, they worry that, in practice, their own democracy has begun to erode. They recognize that political space is closing with regard to basic rights such as freedom of speech. They assess the performance of the incumbent negatively, especially in terms of economic management, corruption control, and police repression. In response, Zambian citizens – notably those with most education, but less so for those with limited schooling – are sounding an alarm. They are reiterating solid and sustained support for institutional checks and balances and a firm rejection of one-man rule.

It Takes a Female Chief: Gender and Effective Policy Advocacy in Malawi

Author: Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s): Ragnhild Muriaas, Vibeke Wang, Lindsay J. Benstead and Lise Rakner

Traditional leadership often coexists with modern political institutions, yet we know little about how traditional and state authority cues—or those from male or female sources—affect public support for human rights issues. Using an original survey experiment of 1,381 Malawians embedded in the 2016 Local Governance Performance Index (LGPI), we randomly assign respondents to a control group or one of four treatment groups to receive a message about child marriage reform from a female or male traditional authority or parliamentarian. Overall, we find that the female traditional authority is most effective, while other endorsers elicit backfire effects. Endorsements produce complex heterogeneous effects across respondent sex, patrilineal/matrilineal customs, gender attitudes, and institutional trust. We extend traditional governance literature by elaborating an intersectional approach to policy advocacy and building a theoretical framework explaining the impact of state and traditional endorsements across countries and policy domains.

Good neighbours? Africans express high levels of tolerance for many, but not for all

Author: Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s): Gift Sambo, and Kim Yi Dionne

Scholars have argued that tolerance is “the endorphin of the democratic body politic,” essential to free political and cultural exchange (Gibson & Gouws, 2005, p. 6). Seligson and Morino-Morales (2010, p. 37) echo this view when they contend that a democracy without tolerance for members of other groups is “fatally flawed.” In this dispatch, we present new findings on tolerance in Africa from Afrobarometer Round 6 surveys in 33 countries in 2014/2015. While Africa is often portrayed as a continent of ethnic and religious division and intolerance, findings show high degrees of acceptance of people from different ethnic groups, people of different religions, immigrants, and people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). Proximity and frequent contact with different types of people seem to nurture tolerance, as suggested by higher levels of tolerance in more diverse countries and a strong correlation between acceptance of PLWHA and national HIV/AIDS prevalence rates. A major exception to Africa’s high tolerance is its strongly negative attitude toward homosexuals. Even so, while the discourse on homosexuality has often painted Africa as a caricature of homophobia, the data reveal that homophobia is not a universal phenomenon in Africa: At least half of all citizens in four African countries say they would not mind or would welcome having homosexual neighbours. Analysis using a tolerance index based on five measures of tolerance points to education, proximity, and media exposure as major drivers of increasing tolerance on the African continent. This is consistent with socialization literature that suggests attitudes and values are not immutable; instead, they can be learned and unlearned. 

Africa's growth dividend? Lived poverty drops across much of the continent

Author: Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s): Robert Mattes and E. Gyimah-Boadi

Though Africa has recorded high levels of economic growth over the past decade, previous Afrobarometer surveys of citizens found little evidence that this growth had reduced levels of poverty in any consistent way (Dulani, Mattes, & Logan, 2013). However, new data from Afrobarometer Round 6, collected across 35 African countries, suggest a very different picture. While “lived poverty” remains pervasive across much of the continent, especially in Central and West Africa, we now see evidence that the decade of economic growth seems to have finally delivered broad-based reductions in poverty.“Lived poverty” (an index that measures the frequency with which people experience shortages of basic necessities) retreated across a broad range of countries. In the roughly three-year period between Round 5 (2011/2013) and Round 6 (2014/2015) surveys, our data suggest that “lived poverty” fell in 22 of 33 countries surveyed in both rounds.However, these changes show no systematic relation to recent rates of economic growth. While growing economies are undoubtedly important, what appears to be more important in improving the lives of ordinary people is the extent to which national governments and their donor partners put in place the type of development infrastructure that enables people to build better lives. 

African publics strongly support term limits, resist leaders’ efforts to extend their tenure

Author: Dr. Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s):

At the end of the 20th century, many African countries adopted presidential term limits as part of a broader set of constitutional rules that accompanied the transition from personal and authoritarian rule to pluralistic modes of governance. While term limits were widely embraced by the larger African public, these rules have in recent years come under increasing attack from incumbent presidents seeking to extend their tenures. In the first six months of 2015 alone, the presidents of Burundi, Benin, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Rwanda have either personally or through their supporters expressed the intention to dispense with or circumvent term limits in order to seek additional terms of office. These quests are often couched in language that portrays a leader’s desire for more time in office as a response to popular demands. A striking example was Blaise Compaoré’s 2014 attempt to seek a third term in Burkina Faso, which was stopped by popular protests that forced the president not just to back off, but to leave the country. But other leaders have been more successful in their efforts to avoid relinquishing power. To test the extent to which campaigns to remove or circumvent presidential term limits are in fact a response to popular demand, this paper draws from Afrobarometer survey data to gauge the levels of public support for presidential term limits. Results from 34 African countries show that there is strong support for presidential term limits among citizens across almost all countries. With very few exceptions, large majorities of Africans support the idea of imposing a two-term limit on the exercise of presidential power. This is true even in those countries that have never had term limits and those that have removed them in the past 15 years. Continuing efforts to dispense with term limits thus reveal a major disconnect between African leaders and African citizens on this issue, underlining the lingering legacy of big-man rule on the continent and highlighting the fragility of African democracies.

Malian democracy recovering - Military rule still admired

Author: Dr. Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s):

Democracy, in the famous words of the British politician Winston Churchill, “is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.”1 After experiencing a twin crisis of separatist rebellion and a military coup in 2012, there were serious concerns about the future prospects of democracy in Mali. Would the short, but brutal, experience of authoritarian rule and a separatist struggle make the return to democracy possible in the short to medium term? Would the country rediscover its position as one of Africa’s promising democracies? Results from a December 2013 Afrobarometer survey suggest that Mali’s short-lived return to authoritarianism has contributed to only a slight increase in public clamor for democracy. Support for democracy has increased especially among groups that bore the brunt of the recent crisis, in the North of the country and among Internally Displaced People. However, this is offset by relatively low levels of support for democracy and rejection of non-democratic alternatives among southerners. The 2013 presidential and legislative elections have further helped to renew confidence in state institutions, as demonstrated by increased trust in key public bodies and increased belief that the new crop of public officials are less prone to corruption. However, given past experience, it is uncertain if this can be sustained. While most indicators of democracy are trending upwards, the country’s democracy still remains fragile. In 2013, demand for democracy in Mali was not only lower than the African average, but Malians perceived that political leaders are delivering a higher supply of democracy than they are actually demanding, suggesting a surplus of elite authority. Against a background of possible euphoria about the new government and relative peace, the high trust levels in public institutions might also be momentary. Taken together, the overall picture suggests the need for cautious optimism in thinking about democratic prospects in post-conflict Mali.

Malians want a united country, post-conflict justice

Author: Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s): Michael Bratton and Massa Coulibaly

According to an Afrobarometer survey conducted in December 2013 with over 2400 respondents,1 the vast majority of Malians stress that their country must remain a single, unified nation. Citizens decisively reject the 2012 attempt by armed groups to create a breakaway state in Mali’s northern territories. But can the supporters of a unified country and advocates of jihad or autonomy settle their differences peacefully in the aftermath of an intense conflict, brutal occupation, and harsh military response? In short, is national reconciliation possible?In post-conflict situations, the prospects for national reconciliation often hinge on whether justice is seen to be done. For example, people want to know whether the truth will be told about human rights violations during the hostilities. Will perpetrators – whether ethnic separatists, religious insurgents, coup makers, government soldiers, or ordinary citizens – be held accountable for their actions? Will victims of abuses be compensated for their losses?These issues are central to the challenge of transitional justice, that is, the quest in new democracies to come to terms with abuses of power committed during past authoritarian regimes. The 2013 Afrobarometer survey reveals that Malians, perhaps weary of repeated conflicts and failed peace agreements, give highest priority to the legal prosecution of wrongdoers.The question remains however, whether peace and justice can be obtained at the same time.2 Will an emphasis on national reconciliation sweep injustices under the carpet, only to fester later? Or will an aggressive campaign of legal prosecutions render impossible any real chance of peace?

Malawi's 2014 Elections: Amid concerns about fairness, outcome is too close to call

Author: Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s): Carolyn Logan and Michael Bratton

Malawians will go to the polls on 20 May 2014 to select their next leaders. In an Afrobarometer1 poll conducted 6 to 8 weeks before the election, Malawians express strong confidence in their ability to vote as they choose, but also concerns about the freeness and fairness of the overall process, especially the vote count. Given uncertainty about registration and turnout levels among Malawian youth, as well as the significant number of respondents who did not reveal a vote choice, the election remains too close to call.

After a decade of growth in Africa, little change in poverty at the grassroots

Author: Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s): Robert Mattes and Carolyn Logan

New data from Round 5 of the Afrobarometer, collected across an unprecedented 34 African countries between October 2011 and June 2013, 1 demonstrates that “lived poverty” remains pervasive across the continent. This data, based on the views and experiences of ordinary citizens, counters projections of declining poverty rates that have been derived from official GDP growth rates. For the 16 countries where these questions have been asked over the past decade, we find little evidence for systematic reduction of lived poverty despite average GDP growth rates of 4.8% per year2 over the same period. While we do see reductions in five countries (Cape Verde, Ghana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe), we also find increases in lived poverty in five others (Botswana, Mali, Senegal, South Africa and Tanzania). Overall, then, despite high reported growth rates, lived poverty at the grassroots remains little changed. This suggests either that growth is occurring, but that its effects are not trickling down to the poorest citizens (in fact, income inequality may be worsening), or alternatively, that actual growth rates may not match up to those being reported. The evidence also suggests, however, that investments in infrastructure and social services are strongly linked with lower levels of lived poverty.

Popular attitudes toward democracy in Mauritius

Author: Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s): Gilles Joomun

Expert assessments of democracy such as the Freedom House Index, Mo Ibrahim Index on Governance, among others, have always rated Mauritius as a paragon of democracy on the African continent. The availability of data from the 2012 Afrobarometer survey that gauged the attitudes and opinions of Mauritian citizens on democracy, governance, the economy, leadership, identity and other related issues, provides us with the first opportunity to test whether ordinary Mauritians agree with those assessments. At the same time, we can compare Mauritius with other African countries. https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Briefing%20paper/afrobriefno118.pdf

Islands drifting apart? A comparative analysis of the socio-economic Experience of Rodrigues and Mauritius

Author: Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s): Joomun, Gilles D.

Despite the socio-political and economic achievements of Mauritius, there is a palpable feeling that the benefits of development have not been evenly distributed among residents of the country’s two main islands, Mauritius and Rodrigues. While citizens of the main island of Mauritius have benefitted from the economic growth of recent years, the economy on the island of Rodrigues continues to be heavily reliant on agriculture, fishing and a small tourism industry. As a result, Rodriguans have not gained as much from recent economic achievements as much as their counterparts on the Island of Mauritius. Rodrigues also face severe climatic conditions such as frequent shortage of rainfall and more frequent cyclones which have had a negative impact on the island’s agrarian economy. Given this contrasting background, this bulletin offers an analysis of how Mauritian citizens on the two islands assess the country's economic management and their own living conditions.https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Briefing%20paper/afrobriefno117.pdf

Situation socioeconomique des Burkinabe et performance du gouvernement

Author: Boniface Dulani

Co-Author(s): A. Loada

Afrobarometer Briefing Paper No. 78December 2009 https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Briefing%20paper/AfrobriefNo78.pdf

Performance Management for Service Delivery in Malawi between 2005 and 2013: A Failed Attempt?

Author: Dr. Micheal Chasukwa

Co-Author(s): Chikapa, T.M.C

Performance Management for Improving Public Service Delivery in AfricaNairobi: African Association for Public Administration and Management (AAPAM), pp 125-147https://www.aapam.org/Publications/BOOKS/Performance%20management%20for%20improving%20public%20service%20delivery%20in%20Africa.pdf